Current Thoughts

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Asset Allocation

The more I look back at the investments that I have made, I have noticed that the ones that have done the best have been in the most illiquid markets.

For example, the stock and options markets are highly liquid. Seller financed paper for example is a small niche of debt investing that has been good to me. Liquidity brings a lot more people to the game and many times the pros with better data probably win.

Moving forward, I plan to allocate more to illiquid investments and less to liquid investments. Fewer pros to compete with…

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250 Trillion in Global Debt

I read at the end of 2019, the world had a total debt level of $250,000,000,000,000 dollars (250 trillion).

As of April of last year, the total global population was approximately 7,700,000,000. Rounding up to a rough 8 billion people, this would equate to a per person debt level of $31,250.

This seems like a lot of debt to me. If everyone were to default, would the lenders like their new collateral?

I highly doubt it.

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Really a Good Call?

Really a Good Call?

A market strategist that I follow seemed to call the recent crash and has been telling anyone who would listen that he called it back in the third quarter of 2018. Great, but just holding through then, until now, doesn’t look to be all that different.

Back then, giving him the benefit of the highest point in the quarter, the SPX was around 2900 and today it is 2790. Down roughly 4%. Was it down more a couple weeks ago? Yes.

However, I need to be more skeptical about people who seem to claim to know more and can accurately call tops and bottoms.